Course Objective & Scope
Most strategic and project plans are built around a single baseline forecast, leaving teams exposed when market, regulatory or technological shifts break their assumptions. This course combines two complementary foresight methods: Scenario Planning—mapping structurally different futures across critical uncertainties—and Gary Klein's Pre-Mortem technique, which imagines a future failure upfront to surface hidden vulnerabilities while they can still be prevented.
Working on a live initiative from their organisation, participants build a 2×2 scenario matrix, early-warning signposts and run a complete Pre-Mortem workshop.
Who Should Attend?
- Strategy, business development, product and portfolio managers
- PMO leads and department heads steering high-stakes initiatives
- Risk management, FP&A and operational resilience teams
- No technical prerequisites
Key Takeaways
- Distinguish true scenario planning from simple best/base/worst-case sensitivity tweaks
- Construct a 2×2 scenario matrix from the two highest-impact, highest-uncertainty drivers
- Identify robust 'no-regret' moves alongside contingent strategic options for each scenario
- Define measurable early-warning signposts and trigger thresholds that activate contingency plans
- Facilitate a psychological-safety-enhancing Pre-Mortem session before major launches
Curriculum
Why Single-Point Forecasts Fail and the Scenario Mindset
- Distinguishing quantifiable risk from structural uncertainty
- Why simple +10%/-10% budget cases are not true scenario planning
Building a 2×2 Scenario Matrix from Critical Uncertainties
- Ranking macro, technological, regulatory and competitive drivers by impact and uncertainty
- Developing four plausible, internally consistent future worlds
Strategic Options, Early-Warning Signposts and Trigger Points
- Separating no-regret moves from contingent options and hedges
- Defining leading indicators (signposts) and quantitative triggers for switching plans
Gary Klein's Pre-Mortem Method: Prospective Hindsight in Action
- How imagining a complete project failure legitimises dissent and breaks overconfidence
- Step-by-step Pre-Mortem facilitation: silent failure writing, clustering and preventive redesign
Live Pre-Mortem and Contingency Playbook Workshop
- Running a full Pre-Mortem on an upcoming organisational launch or investment
- Producing a top-5 vulnerability map with preventive actions and trigger owners
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